Ayele Addis Ambelu (Ayeleradio@gmail.com)
Ethiopia’s official inclusion into the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) marks a significant geopolitical shift for the Horn of Africa nation. This move follows an invitation extended during the BRICS 15th Summit in Johannesburg in August 2023, with the Ethiopian government confirming its membership on Monday.
A study conducted by the Ethiopian Economic Association, involving 330 experts, revealed that Ethiopia’s decision to join BRICS was heavily influenced by the pressures of economic and political sanctions. The study found that many experts believe Ethiopia’s deteriorating foreign relations and excessive foreign interference were significant factors behind the decision.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, at the time of Ethiopia’s approval to join BRICS, stated that the nation was recognized for making significant progress. However, economist Mr. Kbur presented a different view, suggesting that Ethiopia did not actively seek membership but was rather “dragged in,” particularly by influences from the United Arab Emirates.
Political economy analyst Ato Shewaferahu Shtahun highlighted that Ethiopia’s decision to pivot towards BRICS, led by China and Russia, was a reaction to Western interference during the country’s recent conflicts. He argued that decisions of such magnitude should stem from internal consensus rather than external pressures.
According to the study by the Ethiopian Economic Association, Ethiopia’s BRICS membership might lead to bans and suspensions of loans from major financial institutions, as well as reduced foreign direct investment. The study emphasized that the government’s narrative of economic growth and international approval does not align with the reality of the nation’s economic and political crisis.
Historic Integration:
The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry declared, “Today is a historic day as Ethiopia has officially joined the BRICS,” in a statement released on the social network X (formerly Twitter). This integration is hailed as a recognition of Ethiopia’s substantial multilateral contributions toward promoting international peace, security, and prosperity, alongside its commitment to South-South cooperation.
Ethiopia has sought World Trade Organization (WTO) membership for years without success, which some experts cite as part of the rationale behind joining BRICS. The nation, with a population of 120 million, faces significant economic challenges, including widespread poverty and slow economic development.
Ato Shewaferahu Shtahun advised that Ethiopia should carefully consider its diplomatic direction before making significant international decisions. He stressed the importance of prioritizing long-term national interests over short-term gains, warning against actions that could undermine Ethiopia’s financial and political stability. Dr. Darskedar Taye, a diplomatic expert at the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs, noted that Ethiopia’s primary motivation for joining BRICS is likely economic rather than political.
Economic and Political Implications:
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described the membership as a “victory achieved through many struggles,” emphasizing how BRICS membership would bolster South-South cooperation and reformed multilateralism. Analysts predict this move will open Ethiopia to more foreign investment and trade opportunities, leveraging its strategic position between Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Despite the controversies, Ethiopia’s BRICS membership is seen by some as a historic milestone. Dr. Sawale Abate, an assistant professor of finance and investment flow at Addis Ababa University, outlined three major benefits for Ethiopia: increased investment opportunities, access to loans and aid for infrastructure development through institutions like the New Development Bank, and enhanced influence in international affairs.
However, Dr. Sewale also warned that Ethiopia’s alignment with BRICS could invite increased pressure from Western nations, potentially resulting in reduced benefits from Western economic partnerships. The spokesperson for the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Meles Amdel, emphasized that the membership does not signify a shift away from Western alliances but rather an expansion of Ethiopia’s diplomatic and economic engagements.
Economic Potential and Challenges:
With its dynamic and youthful population of over 120 million and rapid economic growth over the past decade, Ethiopia presents a significant market and strategic gateway. Membership in BRICS can catalyze technology transfers, market access, and financing for impactful projects, potentially accelerating GDP growth. However, experts caution that the country must manage its economic and political challenges to reap these benefits fully.
Professor Brook Hailu of Addis Ababa University emphasized that “BRICS can diversify economic opportunities and foster Ethiopia’s development” while highlighting the need for sustainable trade and investment practices. Economist Blen Mamo noted that BRICS membership underscores Ethiopia’s diplomatic capital and economic potential but warned, “Ethiopia must ensure it gets maximum economic benefit through sustainable trade and investment.”
Geopolitical Significance:
Geopolitically, Ethiopia’s strategic location near vital Red Sea trading routes in the Horn of Africa enhances BRICS’ influence in the region. Analyst Brook Hailu stated, “Its geography gives BRICS a gateway to project influence in Africa and the Middle East.” Ethiopia’s advocacy for Africa’s cause within BRICS could further promote the continent’s interests on the global stage.
Internal and Regional Dynamics:
Despite its achievements, Ethiopia faces internal and regional challenges. The ongoing peace process in Tigray, Oromia region unrest, and economic instability pose significant hurdles. The country also deals with strained relations with Western powers, notably the United States, due to human rights concerns and the Tigray conflict. Joining BRICS is a strategic pivot away from Western dependence, signaling Ethiopia’s diversified diplomatic and economic alliances.
Ethiopia’s membership in BRICS, alongside Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Argentina, reflects a broader geopolitical shift. With these additions, BRICS now represents 36% of global GDP and 47% of the world’s population. This expanded influence underscores the group’s challenge to the Western economic and political order.
Ethiopia’s decision to join BRICS is multifaceted, driven by both external pressures and strategic ambitions. While the membership offers potential economic benefits, it also poses significant risks, especially in terms of Ethiopia’s relations with Western financial institutions and governments. The success of this integration will depend on Ethiopia’s ability to navigate these complexities and leverage BRICS opportunities for national development and international influence.
Ethiopia’s BRICS membership aligns with its ambitious infrastructure development goals to enhance regional connectivity and economic growth. The country hopes to leverage BRICS’ New Development Bank to finance large infrastructure projects. Additionally, Ethiopia seeks to expand its global diplomatic relations and economic cooperation through its BRICS membership.
Ethiopia’s integration into BRICS presents both opportunities and challenges. While the membership offers significant economic and geopolitical advantages, Ethiopia must carefully navigate its internal issues and strategic ambitions. The success of this integration will depend on Ethiopia’s ability to leverage BRICS opportunities for national development and regional influence.
